Relax, Let Miyan Nawaz Sort Himself Out First!

AS is its wont, Indian media – particularly the news television – is going bonkers over victory of Miyan Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, with a commensurate starry eyed pitch for improved Indo-Pak relations. There is already clamour that the low hanging fruit of MFN status to India be served by Pakistan ASAP. The euphoria could be misplaced if we take all tenses – past, present and future – into account.

Let’s take history first. I have not been able to successfully google the famous half-hug that Sharif gave to Atal Bihari Vajpayee at Wagah, but the baggage he brings has been tweeted by former top IB hand and strategic analyst B Raman. It was under Sharif’s watch in 1993 that the Lashkar-e-Toiba infiltrated into Jammu and Kashmir. Fugitive don Dawood Ibrahim was given sanctuary in Pakistan following March 1993 Mumbai serial blasts the same time. And, it was Sharif government that became first in the world to recognize the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and start doing business with them.

Now to the present: Sharif has come to power on the back of a heavy doze of Islamist rhetoric. In a sense his victory is manufactured given the fact that all secular parties by Pakistani standards – PPP, ANP, and MQM – were hounded out by the Pakistani Taliban out of the campaign itself. Their leaders in fact were forced to address rallies via mobile phones and video even as the Sharifs went street-by-street, circus Lions in toe. Much as the Indian establishment would hope that justice comes to Hafiz Saed and the likes of him, Miyan Nawaz is in gratitude of the same men. So our expectations could be misplaced.

That brings me to the future. Sharif would need to triangulate his dynamics with both the Mullahs and the Military afresh. With the former he would need to evolve a relationship in which his policies are not unduly influenced by the religious frenzy that presently engulfs Pakistan. It is going to be a long road for the new Prime Minister to disengage from this embrace which has strong foreign policy consequences in both Afghanistan and India, particularly post American withdrawal in 2014.

So far as the latter is concerned the relationship begins with a level of mistrust given the Kargil backdrop. Thus it might be longer still before a working relationship with Rawalpindi develops, unhinged from recent history. His comment of inquiry into Kargil episode might just prove to be good sound byte for Indian television. It would be easier said than done given that there is no proof that Pak Army has become any less touchy, even in post-Musharraf era, over the issue of civilian control. Ayub protege Z A Bhutto had famously promoted Zia over four generals, as had Zia protege Sharif in case of Musharraf. Yet, we know the history.

Thus, India should wait to see durability of Pakistani transition. After all a change of government is essentially an internal affair of a country and we should let Sharif sort himself out over the next six months, or even a year. Meanwhile, for our strategic and intelligence community, the biggest take away from the just concluded democratic exercise in Pakistan should be Baluchistan. The overall turnout was less than 20 per cent against Pak average of sixty. Average winners have bagged over 100,000 votes in Punjab, 50,000 in Sindh, and a measly 10,000 in Baluchistan.  So as they would say in Punjabi: Thaand Rakh Yaar (take it easy), as also a hawk’s eye on Baluchistan.